Last week I didn't put my picks into a preview blog other than my season predictions for the SEC. As most of you know from reading the blog, I'm running a pick 'em this year through Yahoo (details here on the page) to give the readers more of a chance to get involved with the blog. It's my hope to offer the opportunity throughout the season to some of our participants in the pick 'em to add their two cents to some of the week previews. So, in the pick 'em, we pick all the games with SEC teams and then all top 25 teams. This year, to add a little spice and difficulty, I'm picking against the spread. Now, in the weekly preview, I'll tell you who I think is going to win, but I'll also tell you if I think they will cover. Last week, of the 24 games listed in our pick 'em, I got 18 right (against the spread). That was not only good enough for tops in the league but would've placed first in the entire country. As a matter of fact, the best in the Yahoo public groups was a 16 out of 24. We had a total of six participants in the pick 'em that were at 16 or better overall. That's awesome and looks to make for a fun year of some smack talk. Coming in 2nd in week 1 with 17 correct was Mr. McKee from AUM.
Looking at the SEC games last week I had them this way against the spread:
Utah State over Auburn (-23) CORRECT
Alabama (-38) over Kent State CORRECT
BYU (-3) over Ole Miss WRONG
Tennessee (OFF) over Montana CORRECT
Florida (OFF) over Florida Atlantic CORRECT
South Carolina (-20.5) over East Carolina WRONG
Arkansas (OFF) over Missouri State CORRECT
Vandy (OFF) over Elon CORRECT
UGA over Boise State (-3.5) WRONG
Oregon (-3.5) over LSU WRONG
Although Miss. State was not in the pick set due to them playing earlier in the week, I had them also to cover. So basically against the spread, I was 7-4 in the SEC for the week.
If you take the spread out of it, it changes a couple of them. I believed that Auburn would beat Utah State, just not cover the spread and I thought South Carolina would of course win. I also picked BYU to beat Ole Miss. So without the spread, I went 9-2 in the SEC.
Now some observations from Week 1. Let's start with the defending National Champs the Auburn Tigers. Michael Dyer only rushed for 56 yards against the Aggies of Utah State. Looks pretty bad until you look and see he only had 14 carries. While still not stellar against a "inferior" defense, it's still 4 yards a carry. According to my Alabama Public School math, if you get four yards a play on your first three downs, you reset the chains! Hello Coach Chizik...HE CAN'T HELP YOU IF YOU DON'T USE HIM! I'm kind of wondering if 'ol Gus Malzahn was just tinkering was some different schemes and trying to save Dyer's legs for the State game this week. If that's the case, he almost tinkered Auburn right into their first loss of the season. This week will tell the tale on Auburn when they see the Dawgs from Miss. State.
The quarterback controversy still isn't settled if you listen to Coach Saban but it was pretty obvious who had the better grasp on the offense and who had the timing necessary for the college game and that's AJ McCarron. He finished at 14 of 23 for 226 yards, 2 TDs and an interception. He looked really good before we started the swapping of QBs every three series. On the other hand, Sims' timing was WAAAAY off. He was slow on every delivery that he had, even the completions. He did the same thing in the A-day game in the spring and it looks like he is still not there. He finished 7 of 14 for 73 yards and 2 interceptions with no TDs. I guess this week against Penn State will be the litmus test for the QBs. Hopefully someone on the Bama staff saw the Auburn game and we don't screw with what works too much and walk out of Happy Valley with a loss.
LSU might be the best team in the country right now. Their defense is as advertised and Jarett Lee, while not being too spectacular with a 10 of 22 for 98 yards and a TD, didn't do anything to get his team beat. What really caught me off guard a bit was the rushing of LSU. They had two backs that almost broke 100 yards! This ain't Kent State or Utah State that we are talking about on defense either. Spencer Ware finished the game with 97 yards (averaging 3.7 yards a carry) and Michael Ford finished with 94 yards (averaging 6.7 yards a carry). That is pretty freaking impressive in the first week and kudos to that offensive line!
Mississippi State is looking pretty good in romping over Memphis but will get their first real test this Saturday also when they take on Auburn. The Bulldogs averaged 9.3 yards a play on offense and set a school record for 645 total yards of total offense. I got it, it was Memphis but they are still a Division I FBS team. I guess that Dan Mullen has finally arrived and the boys from State are going to be looking at proving a point when they travel down to Auburn this weekend.
Arkansas is slinging the rock in Fayetteville! 28 of 35 for 364 yards passing for the two Razorback QBs. They are sharing the wealth too. 11 different receivers caught a pass this past weekend! Their running game, even with the loss of Knile Davis before the season, seems good enough to mix up their offensive attack. The west should get really interesting when the Razorbacks start mixing it up with the other teams in the SEC West.
Ole Miss is still a disappointment. I have no idea what's going on in Oxford but old Houston Nutt better start looking for another job.
That brings us to UGA. Another big game, another loss for the Dawgs. There just doesn't seem to be a whole lot of bite in those guys anymore. If you look at the stats from the game with Boise State, the game seems to be almost even. One turnover a piece and 373 yards of offense compared to Boise's 390. UGA was atrocious on third and 4th down conversions however going 2-13 on third down and 1-4 on fourth down. They also committed seven penalties that cost them 50 yards and stalled scoring drives. They have to get more disciplined and have to play with some fire to turn this thing around.
How about old Rocky Top? Well if you just look at the score and see a 42-16 win over the Montana Grizz then it seems pretty convincing right? To borrow a line from Lee Corso, "not so fast my friend"! While ending the game with no turnovers, Tennessee fumbled 6 times. More specifically, starting RB Tauren Poole fumbled three times. He finished the game with 97 yards rushing but in bigger games, if he can't hold onto the ball it'll be a game changer. QB Tyler Bray looked outstanding finishing 17 of 24 for 293 yards and 3 TDs. Does UT have the best QB in the SEC?
The Ol' Ball Coach and the Gamecocks took care of business against ECU and hung 56 points on the Pirates with Marcus Lattimore starting his Heisman campaign with a 112 yards and 3 TDs on the day. Stephen Garcia managed to stay out of jail long enough to pass for 110 yards and completing 7 of his 15 attempts. The Cocks ran a clean game too with no penalties but they did lose all four fumbles that they had. Turnovers will kill ya when they get to that SEC schedule.
Down in the Swamp, the Gators took care of business against the FAU Owls. Brantley looked pretty good at the QB spot going 21 of 30 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. Jeff Demps had a good day rushing for 99 yards on 12 carries (8.3 yards a carry) and the Gators looked pretty clean on their first game of the season.
Kentucky fought their way through a sloppy win over West Kentucky on the opening night of the season. The 14-3 win was pretty anti-climatic with their top two running backs rushing for 35 and 36 yards and Morgan Newton, the starting QB finishing the day 7 of 18 for 97 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions. The Kentucky defense also allowed 234 total yards with 103 of them going to the Hilltopper's starting RB, Bobby Rainey.
To wrap it up, congrats to Vandy on their win over Elon. That may be half their wins for the season.
For those of you that haven't signed up for the pick'em I encourage you to do so. I think we are going to have some fun with it. Details are in the upper right corner of the Blog. Also wanted to remind you to check out my buddy Shane's tailgating blog at www.alabamatailgate.com . Since last season, Shane has become a published author by releasing a cookbook for tailgating! Like I've said before, this boy can cook and he's got some pretty interesting stuff in his book and on his blog. Check him out and if you are interested, buy his book! See ya'll tomorrow with my predictions for this weekend in the SEC!
No comments:
Post a Comment