Well, this last week in the SEC saw a couple of interesting match ups. LSU and Bama both proved that they are a contender. Florida is giving it one heck of a go by trying to win with a MASH unit. South Carolina was fighting for their life in the East. UGA and Tennessee were smelling blood in the water and trying to make a run for the East crown. Arkansas is still trying to prove that they can play with anyone in the SEC. Auburn's defense proved that they can't cover a pass. Mississippi State still not looking like the team they were early in the season and Ole Miss even lost on their off week.
Mississippi State (-18.5) at UAB: Well, I had State winning and covering in this one and I was almost right on both accounts. State missed covering the spread by a point. MSSt 21, UAB 3 WRONG!
Kentucky at South Carolina (-21): I thought this one was going to be a blowout and it was. SCar 54, UK 3 CORRECT!
Florida at LSU (-13.5): Really wish that Florida would have been at full strength for this one so that we would have gotten a better read on LSU but called it. LSU 41, Fla 11 CORRECT!
Georgia (-2) at Tennessee: I really thought this one would come down to a field goal with UGA pulling it out. With Bray going down, that helped them out a little more. UGa 20, Tenn 12 CORRECT!
Vanderbilt at Alabama (-29): I was actually really impressed with Vandy early on in this one. They didn't look like the Vandy of old but Bama was just too much. Ala 34, Vand 0 CORRECT!
Auburn at Arkansas (-10): I figured that Arkansas would come out slinging it and they did. I thought that Auburn's secondary couldn't handle Arkansas' air attack and I was right there also. Also thought that the razorbacks would win by at least two touchdowns...and they did. Ark 38, Aub 14 CORRECT!
This week in Scubajack's Pick 'em, we had BamaBoy83, Rising Eagles and Red Catcher winning the week, correctly picking 15 out of 22 games against the spread. Overall, I'm still in first with 76 points but not by much cause You're Gatorbait and RollingTide14 are dead on my heels with 75 and 74 points, respectively. It's still not too late for you to get in on the pick 'em fun since the weekly winners are what we look at as much as we look at the overall lead. Sign up! See ya in a couple of days with the Week 7 Preview in the SEC!
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Preview of Week 6 in the SEC
This weekend brings a couple of intriguing match ups in the SEC, with one of them having HUGE implications in the SEC East. With South Carolina losing to Auburn, the SEC East is wide open. If Florida hadn't lost Brantley last week against Bama, I would make the Gators my top choice at taking advantage of the Gamecock stumble. Having that been said, the match up between UGA and UT in Knoxville puts the winner of the game in prime position in the East and possibly get them a trip to Atlanta in early December. Now, let's look at all the games:
Mississippi State (-18.5) at UAB: The Blazers have no chance in this one. I think the Dawgs find that offense from the first of the season. Mississippi State wins and covers the spread.
Kentucky at South Carolina (-21): Let's face it, the Kentucky Wildcats are not good this year even when compared to past Kentucky teams. Even with the benching of Garcia at South Carolina and Connor Shaw getting the nod at QB from the Old Ball Coach, it won't matter who is taking snaps for the Gamecocks. Lattimore goes nuts and the Cocks win easily! They cover.
Florida at LSU (-13.5): This would have been an intriguing match up if Florida hadn't lost Brantley last week but they did and it's not going to be close. As Coach Lou Holtz said last night on ESPN when talking about Florida's ability to run the ball "can't run the ball against Alabama, LSU and the Green Bay Packers...in that order". Florida's "leading SEC rushing attack" managed to get all of 15 yards last week and look for more of the same this week since UF depends on being able to get to the outside and then up field. They aren't going to be able to beat LSU to the corners. I look for this one to be more of the same that was seen in the Swamp last week. LSU wins easy and covers the spread.
Georgia (-2) at Tennessee: This should be an awesome game. I've went back and forth on this one cause I really like the UT QB, Tyler Bray. I also think that UT is better coached but UGA has the better athletes and I think that will be the difference in this one. UGA wins a cloooooose one by a field goal and covers the spread.
Vanderbilt at Alabama (-29): If Bama can hang the points on Arkansas and Florida then lookout Vandy. The only thing that is going to decide whether or not Bama covers the spread or not is when Saban pulls the starters. Bama wins and covers the spread.
Auburn at Arkansas (-10): This is another great match up this weekend. The Tigers just know how to lose right now. With the exception of the Clemson game where they forgot how to tackle, they have been able to squeeze out a win in all the tight ones. I don't think that it going to happen this weekend. Auburn's secondary is not good at all and Arkansas is going to come out slinging it. I think Arkansas wins by at least two touchdowns and covers.
Mississippi State (-18.5) at UAB: The Blazers have no chance in this one. I think the Dawgs find that offense from the first of the season. Mississippi State wins and covers the spread.
Kentucky at South Carolina (-21): Let's face it, the Kentucky Wildcats are not good this year even when compared to past Kentucky teams. Even with the benching of Garcia at South Carolina and Connor Shaw getting the nod at QB from the Old Ball Coach, it won't matter who is taking snaps for the Gamecocks. Lattimore goes nuts and the Cocks win easily! They cover.
Florida at LSU (-13.5): This would have been an intriguing match up if Florida hadn't lost Brantley last week but they did and it's not going to be close. As Coach Lou Holtz said last night on ESPN when talking about Florida's ability to run the ball "can't run the ball against Alabama, LSU and the Green Bay Packers...in that order". Florida's "leading SEC rushing attack" managed to get all of 15 yards last week and look for more of the same this week since UF depends on being able to get to the outside and then up field. They aren't going to be able to beat LSU to the corners. I look for this one to be more of the same that was seen in the Swamp last week. LSU wins easy and covers the spread.
Georgia (-2) at Tennessee: This should be an awesome game. I've went back and forth on this one cause I really like the UT QB, Tyler Bray. I also think that UT is better coached but UGA has the better athletes and I think that will be the difference in this one. UGA wins a cloooooose one by a field goal and covers the spread.
Vanderbilt at Alabama (-29): If Bama can hang the points on Arkansas and Florida then lookout Vandy. The only thing that is going to decide whether or not Bama covers the spread or not is when Saban pulls the starters. Bama wins and covers the spread.
Auburn at Arkansas (-10): This is another great match up this weekend. The Tigers just know how to lose right now. With the exception of the Clemson game where they forgot how to tackle, they have been able to squeeze out a win in all the tight ones. I don't think that it going to happen this weekend. Auburn's secondary is not good at all and Arkansas is going to come out slinging it. I think Arkansas wins by at least two touchdowns and covers.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Preview- New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
After Monday night's come from behind win for the Buccaneers over the Colts, the Saints remain tied with the Bucs atop the NFC South with both teams being 3-1. This coming weekend, the Saints can help their cause in the South with a win against the Carolina Panthers and new up and coming QB, Cam Newton.
First a look at the Saints. Offense is not the problem with the Saints. Offensively they rank 2nd in the league with 454 yards a game, 5th in points with 31.8 a game, 2nd in pass yards with 335 yards a game and 10th with 119 yards a game. Coach Payton has been using Mark Ingram sparingly but has been giving him touches in some key moments to ease him in to the game. Ingram's 3.5 yards per carry average will only get better when he sees more consistent playing time. Darren Sproles has been spectacular so far with not only his rushes, averaging 8.9 yards a carry, but also with his receptions (26 receptions for 224 yards and 1 TD) and Pierre Thomas is also averaging 5 yards a carry. Right now, defense is the weak spot for the Saints. Rated 15th in the league with overall defense, 9th against the rush and 19th against the pass wouldn't be that bad but the Saints aren't forcing turnovers with only two interceptions and three forced fumbles (with only one being recovered) so far this year. The defense has to improve and be more consistent. I know that the Saints have had to deal with injuries and suspensions to defensive starters so far this year but who in the league hasn't had to deal with something?
Now, looking at the Panthers. The faithful up in Charlotte have been running out and buying anything they can find with Cam Newton on it. If nothing else, he has brought a spark to not only the team but the fans. Cam and the Panthers offense are rated right behind the Saints in most offensive categories being rated 17th in points (with 22.2 a game), 3rd in total yards (with 440 yards per game), 3rd in passing yards (334.8 yards per game) and 17th in rushing yards (105.2 yards per game). Meanwhile on defense, the Panthers are allowing 143.8 rushing yards a game and 203 yards through the air with the only QB comparable to Brees that they have faced is Aaron Rodgers. The Panthers are good on third down defense, only allowing 33.3% of third down conversions.
When you look at these two teams on paper it looks like a pretty close match up but one glaring difference between the two is third and fourth down conversion. The Panthers are an atrocious 17 for 52 on third down conversions and 1 of 4 on fourth down. The Saints meanwhile, are 32 of 58 on third down and 2 of 3 on fourth down. Cam Newton is also only ten yards behind DeAngelo Williams for being the team's top rusher and has all four of the team's rushing TDs. Why? Cause Cam likes to call his own number when he is inside the opponents ten yard line. If you don't think that the Saints defense sees that....you are smoking crack! Jonathan Vilma has seen limited participation in practice this week for the Saints so that it seems that knee injury may still be an issue. Looking at the defenses, I'll give you a push with neither defense really giving you the upper hand but as far as offenses go, the Saints have the advantage and I think that is what will win the game for them. When looking at the special teams, I also give the Saints the edge there. Look for the Saints to come out slinging it and trying to get a quick two score lead. If that happens, look for running of Sproles and Mark Ingram with more touches than they have had so far this season and possibly pushing over that 100 yard mark for one of them. I think that the Saints will win this one by about 10 points.
First a look at the Saints. Offense is not the problem with the Saints. Offensively they rank 2nd in the league with 454 yards a game, 5th in points with 31.8 a game, 2nd in pass yards with 335 yards a game and 10th with 119 yards a game. Coach Payton has been using Mark Ingram sparingly but has been giving him touches in some key moments to ease him in to the game. Ingram's 3.5 yards per carry average will only get better when he sees more consistent playing time. Darren Sproles has been spectacular so far with not only his rushes, averaging 8.9 yards a carry, but also with his receptions (26 receptions for 224 yards and 1 TD) and Pierre Thomas is also averaging 5 yards a carry. Right now, defense is the weak spot for the Saints. Rated 15th in the league with overall defense, 9th against the rush and 19th against the pass wouldn't be that bad but the Saints aren't forcing turnovers with only two interceptions and three forced fumbles (with only one being recovered) so far this year. The defense has to improve and be more consistent. I know that the Saints have had to deal with injuries and suspensions to defensive starters so far this year but who in the league hasn't had to deal with something?
Now, looking at the Panthers. The faithful up in Charlotte have been running out and buying anything they can find with Cam Newton on it. If nothing else, he has brought a spark to not only the team but the fans. Cam and the Panthers offense are rated right behind the Saints in most offensive categories being rated 17th in points (with 22.2 a game), 3rd in total yards (with 440 yards per game), 3rd in passing yards (334.8 yards per game) and 17th in rushing yards (105.2 yards per game). Meanwhile on defense, the Panthers are allowing 143.8 rushing yards a game and 203 yards through the air with the only QB comparable to Brees that they have faced is Aaron Rodgers. The Panthers are good on third down defense, only allowing 33.3% of third down conversions.
When you look at these two teams on paper it looks like a pretty close match up but one glaring difference between the two is third and fourth down conversion. The Panthers are an atrocious 17 for 52 on third down conversions and 1 of 4 on fourth down. The Saints meanwhile, are 32 of 58 on third down and 2 of 3 on fourth down. Cam Newton is also only ten yards behind DeAngelo Williams for being the team's top rusher and has all four of the team's rushing TDs. Why? Cause Cam likes to call his own number when he is inside the opponents ten yard line. If you don't think that the Saints defense sees that....you are smoking crack! Jonathan Vilma has seen limited participation in practice this week for the Saints so that it seems that knee injury may still be an issue. Looking at the defenses, I'll give you a push with neither defense really giving you the upper hand but as far as offenses go, the Saints have the advantage and I think that is what will win the game for them. When looking at the special teams, I also give the Saints the edge there. Look for the Saints to come out slinging it and trying to get a quick two score lead. If that happens, look for running of Sproles and Mark Ingram with more touches than they have had so far this season and possibly pushing over that 100 yard mark for one of them. I think that the Saints will win this one by about 10 points.
Conference Expansion
I don't know how many of you out there listen to Sports Radio but I listen to my fair share while I'm on the road or if I'm in the office. If you do, you know that one of the main topics for the last 3 or 4 months has been Conference Expansion. With Texas A&M definitely coming to the SEC and Pitt and Syracuse heading to the ACC, it seems that the Conference Realignment toward "Super Conferences" has begun. With the Big 12 seemingly floundering because of all the infighting over the Longhorn Network and mismanagement at the Conference level, Missouri has begun to explore their options outside the Big 12 as well as Texas and Oklahoma listening to the occasional suitors. So, here is what I'd like to hear from you...what do you wish the SEC and ACC would look like? Tell me who they should add for the 14 or 16 team league. I look forward to hearing what you have to say and I'll be following up with what I wish would happen. Make them somewhat realistic (i.e. don't say that you wish the SEC would add Southern Cal and UCLA). Let's get those comments going!
Monday, October 3, 2011
Review of Week 5 in the SEC
Well folks, it's official...I suck! I wasn't able to get my preview for this week in nor was I able to get anything done for the preview of the Saints-Jaguars game. Sorry to those of you that actually enjoy reading the blog. The good news is, I did get my picks in for the Scubajack Pick'em and therefore my predictions can be verified. This is what I was thinking:
Mississippi State at Georgia(-7) : Early on this year, I was drinking the Miss. State Bulldog kool-aid. Part of the reasoning for that is because my wife is from Starkville (and NO she is NOT a Miss. State grad, she is a Bama grad) and her family still lives there. I also thought that Dan Mullen had righted the ship somewhat. After the loss to Auburn though, the air seemed to have left the sails of the Dawgs. On the other hand, UGA seems to be gaining a little momentum (not much...just a little) so in this one, I had UGA winning the game and covering the spread. UGa 24, MSSt 10 CORRECT!
Texas A&M(-3) vs. Arkansas (in Dallas): This one was actually kind of a cool match up I thought since this will be an annual meeting with A&M coming into the SEC West next year. I knew that Texas A&M had an offense and not much defense and I saw the same with Arkansas so far this year. I figured this one would be a shootout but I really didn't think that either would get a lead like A&M had at one point. If the Aggies hadn't self destructed, I would have gotten this one wrong. I had Arkansas winning the game outright. Ark 42, TAMU 38 CORRECT!
Auburn at South Carolina (-10) : Even though South Carolina is a train wreck when it comes to the QB position, I figured that "Pour me another Drink" Garcia would show up big in this one just like he did against Bama last year since Auburn is the defending National Champion. I thought that USC would maintain a good lead and then use Lattimore to wear down Auburn's defense in the 4th. I had South Carolina to win and cover. Aub 16, SCar 13 WRONG!
Alabama (-4) at Florida : I honestly though that this was one of the easiest to pick this week because of the spread. I honestly thought that it would be a 7-10 point game which would easily cover the spread. I did think that it would be much closer than the Arkansas game. Guess I missed that one. I did have Bama winning and covering. Ala 38, Fla 10 CORRECT!
Ole Miss at Fresno State (-3.5) : On this one, I have absolutely no confidence in Ole Miss unless they are playing Alabama State and even then, I think I'd take State. I also figured that with the long flight to Cali, these boys would be a little jet lagged but once again, I was wrong. I had Fresno State winning and covering. Miss 38, FrSt 28 WRONG!
So for this week, I was 4-3 against the spread and 4-2 picking straight up. Not my best week but I guess in Vegas it'd get you by! In the Scubajack's Pick 'em this week, I actually came in 1st with 14 of 20 correct with 5 different folks tied for 2nd with 12 picks correct. Those teams were Jansen, Rising Eagles, BamaBoy83, Redcatcher and RgbyRob. Crowedaddy's still remain in the top spot but his days there maybe numbered!
This coming weekend, I was initially thinking that we would have three key match ups but with the injury to Florida QB, John Brantley, the game between UF and LSU has lost some of it's luster. The Georgia-Tennessee game has actually gained some attention now that Florida is dealing with injury issues at the QB position and with South Carolina losing to Auburn. The Arkansas- Auburn match up has also gained some attention and may be the difference in Auburn having a winning season and not. I'll explain more on this game and the Auburn season in my preview for week 6. Hit me up with you comments! Love to hear back from you and be sure and check out the videos of this week's highlights from the SEC at the bottom of the page!
Mississippi State at Georgia(-7) : Early on this year, I was drinking the Miss. State Bulldog kool-aid. Part of the reasoning for that is because my wife is from Starkville (and NO she is NOT a Miss. State grad, she is a Bama grad) and her family still lives there. I also thought that Dan Mullen had righted the ship somewhat. After the loss to Auburn though, the air seemed to have left the sails of the Dawgs. On the other hand, UGA seems to be gaining a little momentum (not much...just a little) so in this one, I had UGA winning the game and covering the spread. UGa 24, MSSt 10 CORRECT!
Texas A&M(-3) vs. Arkansas (in Dallas): This one was actually kind of a cool match up I thought since this will be an annual meeting with A&M coming into the SEC West next year. I knew that Texas A&M had an offense and not much defense and I saw the same with Arkansas so far this year. I figured this one would be a shootout but I really didn't think that either would get a lead like A&M had at one point. If the Aggies hadn't self destructed, I would have gotten this one wrong. I had Arkansas winning the game outright. Ark 42, TAMU 38 CORRECT!
Kentucky at LSU (-30) : I figured that this one would be a runaway but with the large spread I almost picked LSU to win but not to cover. I said ALMOST. I had LSU to win and cover the spread. LSU 35, UK 7 WRONG!
Buffalo at Tennessee (-28) : In this one I figured that Tyler Bray would have a monster game against a second tier secondary and I was correct. He once again passed for over 300 yards. The kid can sling it! I ad UT winning and covering. Tenn 41, Buf 10 CORRECT!
Auburn at South Carolina (-10) : Even though South Carolina is a train wreck when it comes to the QB position, I figured that "Pour me another Drink" Garcia would show up big in this one just like he did against Bama last year since Auburn is the defending National Champion. I thought that USC would maintain a good lead and then use Lattimore to wear down Auburn's defense in the 4th. I had South Carolina to win and cover. Aub 16, SCar 13 WRONG!
Alabama (-4) at Florida : I honestly though that this was one of the easiest to pick this week because of the spread. I honestly thought that it would be a 7-10 point game which would easily cover the spread. I did think that it would be much closer than the Arkansas game. Guess I missed that one. I did have Bama winning and covering. Ala 38, Fla 10 CORRECT!
Ole Miss at Fresno State (-3.5) : On this one, I have absolutely no confidence in Ole Miss unless they are playing Alabama State and even then, I think I'd take State. I also figured that with the long flight to Cali, these boys would be a little jet lagged but once again, I was wrong. I had Fresno State winning and covering. Miss 38, FrSt 28 WRONG!
So for this week, I was 4-3 against the spread and 4-2 picking straight up. Not my best week but I guess in Vegas it'd get you by! In the Scubajack's Pick 'em this week, I actually came in 1st with 14 of 20 correct with 5 different folks tied for 2nd with 12 picks correct. Those teams were Jansen, Rising Eagles, BamaBoy83, Redcatcher and RgbyRob. Crowedaddy's still remain in the top spot but his days there maybe numbered!
This coming weekend, I was initially thinking that we would have three key match ups but with the injury to Florida QB, John Brantley, the game between UF and LSU has lost some of it's luster. The Georgia-Tennessee game has actually gained some attention now that Florida is dealing with injury issues at the QB position and with South Carolina losing to Auburn. The Arkansas- Auburn match up has also gained some attention and may be the difference in Auburn having a winning season and not. I'll explain more on this game and the Auburn season in my preview for week 6. Hit me up with you comments! Love to hear back from you and be sure and check out the videos of this week's highlights from the SEC at the bottom of the page!
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