New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Preview - Week 3

Looking at the NFC South this week, the game between Atlanta and Tampa is sure to be a good one and will really start to separate contenders from pretenders in the South.  Even though the Saints will be taking on the Texans from the AFC South this week.  I think that we can all agree that the AFC South has a totally different look these days with Peyton Manning watching from the sidelines wearing a ball cap.  The Texans have started off the season with a 2-0 start with one of those victories being over a Manning-less Colts team.  That 34-7 win over the Colts started them off right and with a 10 point win last week in Miami over a Dolphins team that is looking a little unbalanced.  Right now, I think the biggest question is, are the Texans for real?  I think that we can honestly say right now that yes, they are for real in the AFC South just for the simple fact that the Colts are not the Colts we are used to seeing week in and week out and with the Jags and Titans rounding out the division, it pretty much looks like it's going to be a two team show in the South with the Texans and the Titans (once they get Johnson back to 100%).  The big thing is, can the Texans consistently compete with the elite teams in the league?  This weekend will tell us alot.

The Texans secondary is going to be tested against the gunslinger Drew Brees and his stable of receivers.  The Saints also have some fresh legs in the backfield.  They have been platooning back there with Thomas, Sproles and Ingram and all three seem to be feeling fine and are all fresh.  The Texans are right the opposite.  Arian Foster has been plagued with a hamstring injury and is keeping him watching from the sidelines mostly but Ben Tate has been more than capable of filling his shoes by racking up 219 yards on 47 carries so far this season. 

This is how I see the game.  The days of Ben Tate running up large numbers rushing are going to end this weekend.  The Saints defense is very good against the rush.  I see three keys to the game:

1. The Texans Defense- they have to first be better against the run.  They have allowed an average of 110 yards rushing per game by two teams that are second tier rushing teams.  They will see three running backs this weekend that are better than what they have seen so far this season.  Their secondary has allowed 162.5 yards per game passing.  That again has been against second tier QBs.  Drew Brees is NOT second tier and he will get his completions.  The Texans have to force him to dump it off short and force the Saints into some 3rd and long situations.  Right now the Texans are allowing a stingy 23.8% in third down conversions.

2. The Saints rushing attack- The Texans are giving up an average of 108 yards rushing a game to second tier running backs.  The Saints have to take advantage of that and if they can, combined with the arm of Brees, they could make this a long day for the Texans.

3.  Third Down Conversions- Right now, the Saints offense is converting 54.8% of it's third down conversions with the Texans offense converting 38.9%.  That ain't gonna cut it if you are a Texans fan.  When you look at the defenses, as I said before, the Texans are only allowing 23.8% of third down conversions where the Saints have allowed 41.7%.  Last week however, the Saints only allowed the Bears to convert 2 of 12 opportunities of third down and 0 of 1 on fourth down.  The Saints obviously made some adjustments after week one in Green Bay and it seems to be working.  Bottom line here, I think whoever can win this conversion battle on both sides of the ball, wins the game.

My prediction is that the Saints pull this one out in probably about a 10 point game.  I'm thinking a score of 31-21 is about right.  Now that's assuming that the Texans protection of Matt Schaub holds up.  If they continue to put themselves in third and long situations, the blitz packages that the Saints will dial up could make this one ugly early.  I think the Saints defense will continue to look good and will take advantage of some of those third down opportunities that are going to be caused by the Texans failure to get early first downs because of their reliance on running the ball.  Will Smith will be back on that defensive line for the Saints and will help to put some pressure on Schaub in those critical third down situations.  Brees will continue to be Brees and I think will put in another 300+ yard game.  I also think that the Saints running game will start to catch fire this week and wouldn't be surprised if we have a 100 yard rusher this week.  It's also in the Superdome and that alone with all the crazies down there will be enough to pull the Saints through.  WHO DAT?!?  GEAUX SAINTS!

AP Photo/Mike Roemer