The SEC Championship Game

Well ladies and Gents, we are in the last weekend of the SEC Football season and it all comes down to the Auburn Tigers and the South Carolina Gamecocks this weekend in Atlanta.  Judging from the increase in traffic in Atlanta last night and seeing alot of South Carolina and Alabama tags running around like they are lost, I'm assuming that both sides will be there in force.

The week started out with the Cam Newton suspension...no what a minute he's not....oh yes he is....NO he's not!  Whatever, I'm so sick of hearing about that crap.  I guess the final statement from the NCAA is that Cam is eligible for the SEC Championship game even though there is evidence that his father did shop him around for cash incentives.  It seems that while Mississippi State could not afford REV Newton's demands, Cam went to Auburn for free.  HUH?  Is everybody as confused as I am?  That's why I hate following this thing.  According to the NCAA, as of now (key use of words) there is no evidence that links Cam Newton or Auburn to these allegations of wrongdoing.  All I know is this, it will not be the last time that we hear about this story.  The FBI doesn't just send agents in to investigate if they don't have probable cause and there are more "men in black" prancing around the plains right now than you can shake a stick at.  Before all you Auburn fans start getting ticked off at me and telling me how much Cam and Daddy Newton are innocent and that there are no investigations going on in Auburn right now, I'm actually getting my info from an Auburn grad so please...have a hot cup of shut the heck up!  Although I think we all wish this would just go away....it's not and unfortunately, Cam Newton at the end of this year will probably sign a multi-million dollar contract with some pro team, the investigation will commence and any wrong doing will come right back on Auburn with absolutely no punishment for the people that actually committed the wrongdoing (if there was any).

Now, on to the game.  Arguably the two teams are coming into the Georgia dome on emotional highs but with South Carolina playing a more balanced game than that of Auburn.  Auburn's defense was caught sleeping several times in the first half of the Iron Bowl.  South Carolina didn't show those lapses in their final regular season meeting with Clemson.  I think the Auburn coaching staff would have a few less butterflies if they had put together a complete game against Bama and had actually been consistent throughout the game.  Another thing that would scare me about this game is the fact that these two are playing each other for the second time this season with Auburn winning the first meeting.  If you follow stats and believe you can make predictions off of them, try this one for size.  The SEC Championship game has featured a rematch of a regular season game a total of six times (1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2010). The team who won the regular season game is 4-1 in the rematches, the lone exception being in 2001 when LSU defeated Tennessee.  That would seem to point to advantage Auburn but, how many of those teams had to come from a 20-7 deficit to win in the fourth quarter and need stupid penalties by the opposition to help them win?  One thing that would concern me if I were an Auburn fan is this.  Auburn seems to have a knack for getting behind early in some of it's biggest games.  20-7 against South Carolina, 21-7 against UGA and 24-0 to Alabama.  The only one of those games that was not at home is the Bama game.  When is Auburn's luck going to run out?  It's impressive that this Auburn squad has so much faith in their abilities that they don't get rattled easily and are able to mount these comebacks but what happens when a team actually stops the comeback and regains the early momentum?  Will Auburn be able to respond again? 

I think that in this game, Auburn will see pretty much a clone of the defensive strategies used by Bama and Ole Miss which limited Cam Newton when it comes to his rushing yards(45 yards on 11 attempts against Ole Miss and 22 rushes for 39 yards against Bama).  The Old Ball Coach has to figure that in order for them to win this game, his offense has to play mistake free and they HAVE TO make Cam Newton one dimensional.  If they can do that, they can make him predictable and if they make him predictable they can make some key turnovers happen to sway the game and momentum in their favor.  It it were not for big plays against Bama, Auburn could not have comeback.  South Carolina cannot allow those big plays.  Their defensive secondary has to play with the field in front of them and not get beat deep.  Make Auburn earn every point, nothing cheap and nothing for highlight reels.  As for South Carolina's offense, you know that they are going to throw the ball cause, who is the coach again?  Yep, that's right.  Steve Spurrier and let's face it, a visor ain't the only thing the Old Ball Coach likes to sling.  He will put it in the air every time he gets the chance.  They passed for 30 attempts against Clemson but they could run some on Clemson (they ran for 36 attempts).  Marcus Lattimore, the sensational freshman, will be well rested for this one and I look for Garcia and Spurrier to open up with some gun slinging hoping to get that early lead and then giving the rock to the freshman to run some clock and try and seal the game for them.  If South Carolina does get the lead, their defense will actually have to get more disciplined as the game goes along.  I'm sorry USC fans...but has that happened yet this season?  I'm thinking not.  If Auburn can play their game on offense and keep the pressure off Newton, they will control the game.  South Carolina does not have defensive lineman that can keep Newton contained, like we saw against Bama which forced him to throw.  South Carolina will more than likely have to put a spy on him (that's usually a linebacker that pretty much shadows him) to try and contain him to force him to pass.  The only thing about having to use a spy all the time, it is going to open up some of those short middle routes for the tight ends for Auburn.  If South Carolina has to use a spy more than 50% of the time...they will lose this game.  Auburn will just put Cam in the shotgun and have him roll to the left or right in the pocket, identify the spy and pick apart his zone.  As I said with the South Carolina, the Auburn secondary must play disciplined ball for four quarters.  They have yet to do that.  Mistakes like, oh...leaving Julio Jones uncovered in the Iron Bowl, can't happen against South Carolina cause Alshon Jeffery will make you pay too.  USC will need at least 80 yards out of Lattimore and Garcia will need around 250 yards passing with no interceptions to pull this off.

Alright..for my prediction.  Honestly, I have my head telling me one thing and my heart telling me something else.  My head tells me that the Old Ball Coach has learned enough from playing Auburn once already, and watching Ole Miss and Bama contain Cam Newton to make him one dimensional to be able to formulate a game plan to pull the upset.  My heart, since I want Auburn to win, is telling me that it doesn't matter if they go down big or what, they will find a way to pull it off.  This week, I think I'm gonna have to go with my heart.  I'm going to take Auburn and see them heading to the National Championship against Oregon.